by Cole DeHaven | @CDeHavenFF
Jonathan Taylor, #28 Running Back Indianapolis Colts
The tumultuous 2020 season is coming to a close, and the dynasty running back hierarchy has changed significantly since kickoff last September. Many worried that without a full off-season to prepare, many rookies would fail to live up to expectations and would thus be less impactful for their teams in their freshman seasons. This couldn't be further from the case as we saw flashes of brilliance from all of the highly touted early selections in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, and even A.J. Dillon late in the year. Undrafted rookie James Robinson burst onto the scene in Jacksonville pushing Leonard Fournette out of his starting gig and even off the roster entirely.
Let us not forget the established NFL superstars that had pro bowl seasons yet again. Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry dominated the field scoring big for fantasy owners. Injuries made an impact to perhaps to two most coveted dynasty assets coming into the season: Christian McCaffrey was limited to only three games, while Saquon Barkley played in one full game before missing the entire year. These same faces will be back next year to compete with the ascending rookie class of 2020, but who breaks into the top ten in dynasty after such a heavy infusion of talent to the position?
1) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2020 Stats: 225 rushing yards, 17 receptions for 149 yards, six total touchdowns
While McCaffrey missed 13 games, his presence was felt for fantasy owners in games he participated. The Panthers star boasted the highest points per game total of all running backs in 2020, averaging 27.3 PPG in a true workhorse role. It should be noted that while McCaffrey did bust due to injuries, in his prior three NFL seasons he had never missed a game up until this year and is a reliable option at the position. Prior to his time out this season, he had the highest total snap average of any running back in 2020, playing 57 snaps per game.
McCaffrey offers a sky-high ceiling with the amount of carries and red zone opportunities he garners, but also gives owners a guaranteed safe floor with his receiving chops. McCaffrey broke the single season reception record for running backs two seasons in a row in 2018 and 2019, and became only the third player in NFL history to record a 1,000 rushing yard 1,000 receiving yard season in 2019 joining Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk in the club.
McCaffrey signed a contract extension with Carolina in April of 2019 to the tune of four years $64,063,500 and will be a part of the team's long term plans going forward as he has dominated on the field and is still young at only 24 years old. He should remain the first selection in many dynasty drafts going forward, and has provided hall of fame tier ability when active.
2) Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
2020 Stats: 34 rushing yards, 6 receptions for 60 yards, zero total touchdowns
Coming into the new year, Barkley was essentially interchangeable with McCaffrey at the 1.01 for many owners given the age and talent. Unfortunately, like McCaffrey, 2020 was a lost year for Barkley and dynasty players due to an ACL tear in week 2 against Chicago. Saquon has only played in 65 percent of games since entering the league, and fantasy managers may view him as fragile coming into his fourth season. This may create a potential buy window as many owners looking to get out from under Barkley, and he may become a value in startup drafts given the success of the 2020 rookie class.
When healthy, Barkley offers as high a ceiling as any available running back in football with a high end floor to boot. While his targets decreased significantly in his second year with then rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, he has proven to be a superb target when the ball is thrown his way with soft hands and the ability to break open any play. There is an argument that he has not yet even shown that ceiling. The teams he has played on thus far in his career have had subpar line play and a lack of receiving talent (outside of Odell Beckham in 2019), allowing opposing defenses to focus solely on him.
In a contract year in 2021, Barkley will have to prove he can stay on the field to get the contract he has shown he deserves. Still a young asset turning 24 in February, Barkley is one of the true freak athletes in the NFL metric wise, and he is arguably the best player at his position.
3) Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
2020 Stats: 1,169 rushing yards, 36 receptions for 299 yards, 12 total touchdowns
The first of the vaunted 2020 rookie class to appear on this list, Taylor quickly displayed why the Colts traded up in the early second round to secure his services. Taylor tore it up in college at Wisconsin during his three seasons, ending his collegiate career at number six on the all time NCAA rushing list while accruing two first team All-American awards and two Doak Walker awards. Coming out of college, Taylor was viewed as more of a pure rusher due to his lack of receiving work at Wisconsin, accruing 42 catches through his three seasons. This changed with the Colts immediately, as Taylor proved he could do it all catching 36 of 39 targets for 299 yards in his rookie season. Of course Taylor showed out on the ground, rushing for 1,169 yards and averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns behind a solid line.
While the season started slow for Taylor, he still put up big time stats as the number 6 running back in half-PPR scoring in 2020. These stats are impressive as Taylor only saw an above 50 percent running back snap share in eight games, sharing the load with Nyheim Hines early in the year. With the departure of Philip Rivers from the Colts, Taylor may see a slight dip in his targets next season, but he proved he can play the part of a receiving back extraordinarily well and should be given more than enough work both on the ground and in the air going forward.
Taylor, 22, has all the makings of an elite dynasty centerpiece at the running back position: youth, a high end offensive line, top 10 defense , and the talent to garner a bigger piece of the pie.
4) Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
2020 Stats: 932 rushing yards, 83 receptions for 756 receiving yards, 21 total touchdowns
After being hampered by an ankle injury for much of the 2019 season, Kamara returned at full force in 2020 finishing as the number 1 overall running back in half and full PPR scoring. This was Kamara's third season of over 100 targets (97 in 2019), which turned into 83 catches for 756 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Kamara also had his best rushing totals of his career to date, turning in 932 yards on the ground with 16 touchdowns. His stats could have been even more impressive but Kamara sat in week 17 against a subpar Panthers run defense, where he could have easily finished with his first 1,000 yard rushing season.
With Drew Brees' retirement following the Saints loss to the Buccaneers in the divisional round, it would appear Kamara's receiving work could decrease. It would seem Taysom Hill will be the starter for the Saints next season as the team is buried with no cap space, and this could spell trouble for both Kamara's receiving and goal line work as Hill is a true dual threat quarterback that will take a few rushing touchdowns for himself. This is not to say that Kamara should be looked upon as a depreciating asset. He has never finished outside of the top nine at his position in fantasy scoring and is still youthful enough (25) to provide a few more seasons of RB1 play. Kamara also signed a five year $75,000,000 contract with the team in September of 2019, tying him to New Orleans until 2023 when they can get out of the contract should they need to.
Kamara has done nothing but produce at an elite level since entering the NFL in 2017, and should continue to provide a high end floor with plenty of upside even with Brees' retirement. Look for Kamara to continue be a top five running back asset in 2021.
5) Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
2020 Stats: 1,557 rushing yards, 44 receptions for 361 receiving yards, 17 total touchdowns
The Vikings feature back followed up his blistering pace from 2019 with an even better follow up in 2020, amassing 1,918 scrimmage yards and 17 scrimmage touchdowns in a 14 game season for Minnesota. Cook provides a floor with his receiving share coming in as the third most targeted player on the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, as well as ranking at the top of the league for touches inside the 10 and five yard lines.
There is a stigma that Cook can't stay healthy in many fantasy player's eyes, as he has suffered injuries in every season to begin his career. However, he has missed only three games to injury in the last two seasons and has shown he can be a dependable player that can hold up to a heavy workload and big fantasy points.
Cook's workload is secure and he is guaranteed to be "the guy" for at least the next two seasons after signing a five year $63,000,000 contract with Minnesota in September of 2020. His contract makes him uncuttable until 2023 when the team can save $7,900,000 by releasing or trading the star running back. His numbers speak for themselves, as he finished at 24.1 PPG this season, trailing only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey on the year, routinely winning weeks for owners with consistent production. Cook will be a top five selection in most non superflex drafts, and will provide elite RB1 numbers for the foreseeable future.
6) Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
2020 Stats: 1,067 rushing yards, 16 receptions for 150 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns
Chubb tore the field up in 2020 despite the roadblocks put in his way throughout the year. Finishing at the PPR RB11 on the season, Chubb consistently dominated en route finishing as the number five player overall in yards per carry at 5.5. Chubb missed three games to an MCL sprain in week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys and played in tandem with the talented Kareem Hunt for most of the season, splitting the workload and capping Chubb's upside. What makes his overall finish even more impressive is his snap count percentage: he played on only 38.64 percent of the Browns total offensive plays.
Chubb has never finished under 5.01 yards per carry in his NFL career even when the opposing team knows the run is coming. The Browns finished as the fourth highest team in run percentage at 47.78 percent, allowing both Chubb and Hunt to finish as top 12 running back options on the season. Unfortunately, he does not get the targets that many other running backs on this list do, garnering only 16 receptions on 18 targets for 150 yards this season. Should he get more targets going forward, he will rise to a higher tier of fantasy running backs, as catches will always garner more points than runs.
In a contract year in 2021, Chubb will continue to share work with Hunt for the coming season. This will cap Chubb's upside for fantasy, but will also allow him to stay fresh and not take as big of a toll on his body long term. Hunt's contract will be expiring at the end of 2022, and Chubb would be poised to take over workhorse duties at that point. Chubb is one of the best running backs in the league, and while he may not be able to hit number one overall status with Hunt sharing the field, he still has the potential to hit that ceiling.
7) Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
2020 Stats: 2,027 rushing yards, 19 receptions for 114 receiving yards, 17 total touchdowns
Henry has led the league in rushing yardage two seasons in a row and appears poised to continue that trend next season. Henry has been the lead back for the Titans for those two seasons after starting his career in a timeshare with DeMarco Murray and Dion Lewis. Since their departures, he has become the one of the most dominating running backs in the NFL and a truly unique force to be reckoned with. Racking up 3,566 scrimmage yards and 35 touchdowns the last two seasons while averaging over five yards per carry with over 300 attempts both years, King Henry has been one of the most valuable dynasty assets available.
The only downside to Henry's game is his lack of receiving work. He has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, but his rushing ability and touchdown upside keep him from dropping outside of the top five in fantasy production. Henry ranked number two in the NFL in red zone touches (only behind Josh Jacobs), and finished at number four in points per game this season with 20.8 in PPR scoring. In 2020, the Titans ran the ball at the third highest rate only behind Baltimore and New England, and yet Henry still finished the season at 5.36 YPC even when running into stacked boxes on a consistent basis.
Henry remains under contract with the Titans until 2024 and will be the dreaded 30 at the end of his deal. Given the fact that he is beginning to get older for a running back, he will be discounted in drafts and trades when younger assets are involved. He should still provide gaudy numbers for fantasy owners and show out in the touchdown column due to his workload and touches at the goal line. If your team is built to win now, consider making the move for Henry.
8) Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
2020 Stats: 625 rushing yards, 11 receptions for 123 receiving yards, three total touchdowns
The Los Angeles Rams selected Akers with the 20th pick in the 2020 draft to become their bell cow and long term solution after Todd Gurley's knee issues and eventual release from the team after posting incredible numbers in Sean McVay's offense. While Akers began the season slowly in a timeshare with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson, Akers broke out down the stretch and into the playoffs. In playoff games, coaches will go to their most trusted and talented assets. Akers was the Rams' true feature back in their two playoff games against the Seahawks and Packers, carrying 46 times for 221 yards while scoring twice on the ground and twice in the air to the tune of three receptions for 51 yards. He was also the only Rams running back to receive a carry in the divisional round against the Packers.
One of the youngest players in the league at 21, Akers projects to receive the bulk of the work in McVay's offense that centers around the running back. Before Gurley's knee deteriorated and forced the Rams to move on, TGIII was fantasy gold racking up 4,988 scrimmage yards and 54 total touchdowns in three seasons. With prototypical size and athleticism to boot, Akers looks poised to take over that same role and produce with no major past injuries to stop him. The ceiling is RB1 overall for the talented runner out of Florida State in a run heavy offense. Look to acquire him when possible.
9) J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
2020 Stats: 805 rushing yards, 18 receptions for 120 receiving yards, nine total touchdowns
Coming out of Ohio State, Dobbins was viewed by many in the fantasy world as potentially the best running back in the 2020 class. Baltimore needed a young asset to become the lead back as incumbent starter Mark Ingram entered his age 31 season, and Dobbins fit the bill. In his rookie season, Dobbins was part of a committee with Ingram and Gus Edwards, with Dobbins showing the most game breaking ability of the trio. Dobbins finished number three in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.8 (teammate Lamar Jackson finished at number one with 6.4 YPC), averaged 6.1 yards per touch, and scored nine touchdowns while only playing 44.40 percent of the offensive snaps.
With the Ravens releasing Ingram in January and Edwards becoming a restricted free agent this off-season, Dobbins projects to become the primary ball carrier (outside of Lamar Jackson) in 2021. In the two seasons with Jackson as the starter, Baltimore ran the ball at a 55.04 percent rate last season, and 54.07 percent in 2019, signaling a run first approach under the young quarterback. This bodes well for the talented rookie who should receive a healthy workload and easy holes to run through with defenses selling out to prevent Jackson from scrambling. Dobbins finished with a 6 percent target share (18 receptions for 120 yards) on the year, which could improve going forward. While Dobbins has shown he can be proficient as a pass catcher, the Ravens threw the ball to the running back less than every other team in the league outside of the Titans on the year (62 targets total). Dobbins' ceiling will come through running efficiency going forward which can cap his upside compared to other backs on this list.
Playing for the Ravens will benefit Dobbins tremendously, as the team was the second best in league point differential at +8.8 this year, and number one last season at +13.7. Dobbins will receive much of running game work as the team leads with positive game scripts, and has shown the ability to lead the backfield. He is an ascending asset that will only appreciate in value going forward.
10) D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
2020 Stats: 521 rushing yards, 46 receptions for 357 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns
Swift ended up being the second running back selected in the class only behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but was drastically cheaper in rookie and startup drafts due to his landing spot. The Lions were one of the most committee heavy backfields in the NFL in 2020, with Swift leading the way at a 38.01 percent snap share. Even with a low snap share in a bottom half offense, Swift managed to accumulate 878 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns.
While Detroit's offense was not the best on the ground in 2020, Swift rushed for 4.57 yards per carry and showed the talent to become one of the better backs at his position. He is not only a good runner but is also supremely talented as a pass catcher, bringing in 46 of 57 targets for 357 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie season. With the departure of Matthew Stafford and the arrival of new coach Dan Campbell, Detroit will look to play hard-nosed football, prioritizing the run early and often.
Look for Swift to become a featured back going forward in 2021 as he will be one of the focal points in the offense as a young talent that will provide a spark to a team lacking star power (outside of wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who may leave in unrestricted free agency this off-season). While his ceiling may be capped on an offense with a rookie head coach and an unknown quarterback, he will provide a stable floor due to his top end receiving ability. The best is yet to come.
JUST OUTSIDE THE TOP 10: Ezekiel Elliot, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, Aaron Jones, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Cole DeHaven is a freelance fantasy writer trying to prove Carson Wentz still has it after his 2020 season. Follow him on Twitter @CDeHavenFF .