by Cole DeHaven | @CDeHavenFF
Joe Burrow, #9 Quarterback Cincinnati Bengals
With the NFL draft complete and June upon us, rookie draft season is in full swing for dynasty league players. We have seen player values rise and fall all over the league with the arrival of the next wave of rookie stars for both the better and worse. For this article, we will be discussing players who are rising in the rankings and are looking at a probable increase in their statistical outputs. The best time to get in on studs is right before the explosion. Here are five of those future fantasy superstars.
1) WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
2020 Stats: 60 Receptions, 748 Receiving YDs, 5 Receiving TDs, 77 Rushing YDs, 2 Rushing TDs
The former first rounder out of Arizona State was fantastic in his rookie year, averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game in an injury plagued offense. Not only was he missing a quality starter at quarterback for a majority of the year with Garropolo injured, but Aiyuk himself also missed four games throughout the season. Superstar tight end George Kittle also missed eight contests, as did fellow wideout Deebo Samuel, placing much of the defensive attention in the passing game on the rookie. Despite this, Aiyuk still succeeded and may have finished with 1,000 receiving yards his rookie season had he not dealt with injuries.
Aiyuk will demand more targets in Shanahan's offense as he proved the run after catch ability he displayed at the collegiate level was no fluke. His ability to read and react on the run paired with freak athleticism and physical tools will afford him many big days in fantasy with the ability to take any play to the house. With San Francisco having the seventh most available targets (193) among all NFL teams coming into the 2021 season, Aiyuk will receive more than the 96 targets he saw his rookie year, even with Kittle and Samuel back in the lineup. All signs point towards Aiyuk taking a major step forward next season. This may be the cheapest he will be on the market for the foreseeable future.
2) RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
2020 Stats: 11 Receptions, 123 Receiving YDs, 1 Receiving TD, 625 Rushing yards, 2 Rushing TDs
We may be looking at the next dynasty RB1 in LA Rams sophomore Cam Akers, who validated the team's second round draft selection down the stretch in a playoff run with bell cow type usage. Cam the ram started off the year slowly due to a rib cartilage separation in week two and spent much of the season behind Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson before shining through when the team needed him most in their playoff contests. Akers touched the ball 30 times for 176 yards with a touchdown in the Rams wild card victory in Seattle, following it up with a 19 touch, 96 yard and a touchdown game in a LA loss to the Packers the next week. The team proved their faith in their young running back by giving him workhorse touches in those high pressure elimination games, which bodes well for Akers heading into 2021.
McVay's offense delivered top end RB1 numbers when Todd Gurley was in his heyday with the Rams a few years ago, finishing as fantasy's top scoring back two seasons in a row in 2017 and 2018. Akers is poised to take on Gurley's workloads as he has the talent they have missed since Gurley's release, and this will cause his value to skyrocket. Not to mention Matthew Stafford's presence will only improve the offense as they will be able to push the ball downfield much more than with previous starter Jared Goff, opening up more holes for Akers and clearing defenders out of the box. The ceiling for Cam is Gurley's old high end before his knee fell apart, and if he hits those numbers he will be nearly impossible to acquire in trade deals. Buy now while the opportunity is still there.
3) WR DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
2020 Stats: 66 Receptions, 1,193 Receiving YDs, 4 Receiving TDs, 22 Rushing YDs, 1 Rushing TD
DJ Moore's perception amongst the fantasy community is similar to that of Joe Mixon: many are burnt from the return on investment that they have been receiving from the player, yet the stats are still there. Moore has back to back 1,215 yard four touchdown seasons, finishing both 2019 and 2020 as a WR2. It was clear to anyone watching a Carolina Panthers game last year that Teddy Bridgewater did not hit DJ Moore (or the other receivers for that matter) as often as he should have, resulting in his being traded to Denver prior to the 2021 NFL draft. Despite poor quarterback play for his entire professional career, Moore has proven to be a high end fantasy asset at a young age.
There is reason to believe his statistical performance will have a huge boost going into next year by taking a look at an important buy low statistic: air yards. Moore only had 66 catches on 118 targets while finishing the year with the fifth most air yards at 1,575 yards and finishing number two in the NFL in air yards share at 41.6 percent of total team share. Carolina also has the fourth most available targets going into next season with 200 vacated targets. While Christian McCaffrey will return to soak a portion of those targets up, new starter Sam Darnold should serve as an improvement over Bridgewater, helping to jettison Moore into WR1 territory. Capitalize on the perception amongst fantasy owners that Moore's value is dipping and acquire a great player while there is a buying window.
4) QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Stats: 2,688 Passing YDs, 13 Passing TDs, 5 INTs, 142 Rushing YDs, 3 Rushing TDs
Burrow was on pace for a tremendous rookie season before going down in week 11 to an ACL/MCL tear against the Washington Football Team, creating a buy opportunity for dynasty owners. While he lost the end of the year and much of the offseason to the injury, his ceiling is sky-high going forward as the team has shown they will move to improve the situation around their star quarterback. Burrow showed touch and fearlessness throwing the ball in his rookie year, and to supplement that he has the critical ability to run the ball when needed which only boosts his stock. The Bengals threw the ball at a high rate while Burrow was on the field in 2020, look for that to continue and serve to improve his stats with the new additions to the offense.
Cincinnati invested heavily to improve Burrow's offensive supporting cast, adding former college teammate Ja'marr Chase out of LSU with the fifth pick in round one, Clemson guard Jackson Carman in mid round two, and solid tackle Riley Reiff in free agency earlier this year. With these additions, the Bengals are flush with talent with running back Joe Mixon in the backfield in addition to wide receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins helping to round out one of the NFL's best supporting casts. He looked the part of the number one pick in his rookie season, and should be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he continues to progress. He looks to be healthy for week one after his offseason knee surgery and is a good investment as the Bengals look to be an ascending offense.
5) TE Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
2020 Stats: 62 Receptions, 673 Receiving YDs, 3 Receiving TDs
Denver has a plethora of weapons and is short at the most important position in football: quarterback. Noah Fant filled the role of the big target for the Broncos last season with wide receiver Courtland Sutton going down to a torn ACL in week 2, and he performed admirably. Fant continued to improve upon his yardage totals from his rookie season and has the tools to develop into a high end fantasy talent as he is an athletic freak for the position. There is target competition in Denver with Sutton returning and sophomore wide receiver Jerry Jeudy showing well his rookie season, but Fant has the ability to be the cheat code for the offense as he can exploit slower linebackers and smaller defensive backs in coverage anywhere on the field. He finished number six in the NFL in tight end targets and sixth in target share at the position, as well as third at yards after catch behind two of the most elite tight ends in the league in Darren Waller and Travis Kelce.
While Noah Fant's fantasy numbers through his first two years may not be eye popping upon initial inspection, they are certainly impressive given young tight end performances on average and his quarterback situation since entering the NFL. Tight ends tend to have a fantasy "breakout" a few years into their careers in their mid twenties. Fant (age 23) is right on schedule and could even be ahead. If he gets an upgrade from Drew Lock this coming season he can push into the top tier of tight ends, finishing as a potential high end TE1. This is the optimal buying window at a position that is very scarce: a player that is on the cusp of having a statistical breakout and is one roster improvement away from a substantial increase in value is worth investing in. Teddy Bridgewater may push Lock to the bench this season, and while he is not a top end quarterback, he will still be an upgrade for Fant should make his way into the starting lineup. Regardless of who is throwing to him, Fant will perform once again in 2021 and will continue to accrue value going forward.
BONUS CHEAP BUY LOW TARGETS:
QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts: Linking back up with his old OC in a much better situation than Philadelphia could be a boon for his fantasy value. If your team is looking to shore up the QB position for cheap, Wentz may be a good bet with many in the dynasty community tapped out on his career. Wentz has a QB1 ceiling in Indy with a great offensive line and decent weapons to support him, he is worth a flier.
TE Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans: While he may not have the staying power of other tight ends long term (UDFA, bounced around a bit before landing in Tennessee), Firkser is primed for a low end TE1 season as previous starter Jonnu Smith moved on to New England in free agency and the team did not bring in a replacement in free agency or the draft. Even with Jonnu playing 15 of 16 contests in 2020, Firkser still garnered 53 targets compared to 65 for Smith. Expect a jump in production and buy for cheap if your team needs a spot starter or a backup.
WR Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders: Edwards had a rocky rookie season, but we can assume that it would have gone differently if COVID had not shortened his freshman offseason programs and he had not dealt with knee and ankle issues. Edwards profiles as an alpha at 6'3" 212 pounds, and with the departure of last years number one receiver Nelson Agholor, Edwards looks primed to take the next step. He presents a great buy low opportunity as the athleticism, size, draft capital (round 3) and ability are there. Don't forget about all the hype he got his rookie year from the team.
Cole DeHaven is a freelance fantasy writer trying to prove Carson Wentz still has it after his 2020 season. Follow him on Twitter @CDeHavenFF.
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